One life for 1000: The cruel arithmetic of Hamas hostage taking

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Israel once exchanged 1000 Palestinian prisoners for a single soldier seized during a cross-border raid. Another time, it swapped almost 5000 prisoners for six of its military personnel. Its commandos have infiltrated a hostile country to rescue hijacked plane passengers. “A premium is put on the value of every Israeli life,” says Ben Saul, a professor of international law.

But what it faces now is unprecedented. There may be more than 100 Israeli hostages in Gaza. They’re not just soldiers; there are children, grandmothers, young people captured while dancing at a festival. One mother was on the phone to her 12- and 16-year-olds, who she hasn’t heard from since. “I heard terrorists speaking in Arabic,” she says. “The youngest saying to them ‘I’m too young to go’. ”

Partygoers at the Nova rave near the border with Gaza. Some of the festival-goes are believed to have been taken hostage.

The hostages are likely to be hidden all over the city, some in tunnels and burrows lying up to 30 metres beneath one of the most densely populated areas in the world. As Hamas threatens to broadcast the execution of a hostage for every surprise bombing of a civilian home in Gaza, Israel faces a diabolical choice; to abandon its past policy and sacrifice those people to hit back hard, or preserve lives by tiptoeing around Hamas’ demands.

“It’s uncharted territory,” says Saul. “On the one hand, there will be enormous pressure to safely return the hostages, if that’s at all possible. On the other hand, will that be overshadowed by the greater public sentiment for vengeance and retaliation and finishing Hamas for good, regardless of the price even to those hostages?”

Rescues, even by the famed special forces, would be impossibly difficult. Firstly, Israel would struggle to find all the hostages, as they’re likely being held in Gaza’s extensive network of tunnels dubbed the Hamas Metro, which run for miles under the city and into Egypt, decked with electric wires and lights. Some are dirt, some are well-constructed. Usually, they are used for covert travel, and to smuggle contraband and weapons.

Moreover, Gaza “is controlled by Hamas”, says Saul. “It’s heavily militarised, defended, lots of planning has gone into how these captives are held and where they’re held.” A military ground invasion attempting to bring Hamas to its knees could also end badly for the hostages, who would probably be killed or moved.

Israel’s alternative to a ground invasion or rescue would be to “to do what they’re doing already”, says Saul. “Which is aerial bombardment from afar to degrade Hamas’ offensive capacities, kill its commanders, destroy its mission. It’s not enough to fully defeat Hamas. We will not know [if Hamas is serious about executing hostages] until it starts happening.”

Israel has also ordered a complete siege of Gaza – which is home to 2.3 million people – by cutting off water and food.

If Israel allowed Hamas’ execution threat to influence its response, however, it would “show [Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu] to be weak, ineffective”, says Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the Australian National University. “The other thing Hamas would do, [is say], ‘we will release hostages, but you have to release prisoners, and also a ceasefire’; if there’s a ceasefire, that would be interpreted as a victory for Hamas.”

Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu’s brother died during a successful mission to save Israeli passengers on a hijacked plane.

Nigel Brennan can imagine how the hostages may be feeling as they grapple with their horrifying situation and their fate hangs on the military and strategic calculations of their government. In 2008, the Australian photojournalist was kidnapped at gunpoint in Somalia. “There’s that shock, you’re going through that first stage of trauma,” he says.

“Lots of disbelief – is this really happening, is this just a bad dream? Your brain jumps to the worst conclusion. I was instantly thinking of situations like Daniel Pearl (a journalist beheaded by Islamic militants). Is my government going to come in? Will we be safe, will we be slaughtered? My thoughts are with all of those people who’ve been taken, and their families.”

Nigel Brennan was held captive in Somalia for 460 days. Inset: Nigel Brennan shortly after his release by Somali rebels in 2009.Credit: Nigel Wright, Reuters

Netanyahu well knows the importance of hostage recovery to his country. His brother, Yonatan, was the only soldier killed during a successful 1976 mission to rescue Israelis who had been aboard a plane hijacked by Palestinians, which involved special forces sneaking into a hostile Uganda.

He was opposition leader the last time an Israeli soldier was taken as a prisoner during an incursion into the country’s territory, in 2006, and was the prime minister when the government agreed – under public pressure, although not without controversy – to buy his freedom in exchange for 1000 Palestinian prisoners.

“The Israeli leadership is in a considerable bind at the moment,” says Saikal. “To me, it appears that probably they want to go in [and launch a ground invasion of Gaza].” But if they sacrificed the hostages as a result, “what would be the reaction of the Israeli public? Why didn’t we have our special forces going in and rescuing these guys?” For many years, the loss of innocent life would be mourned and Israel’s response questioned.

Kylie Moore-Gilbert spent years imprisoned in Iran on trumped-up espionage charges.Credit: Scott McNaughton

Kylie Moore-Gilbert is another Australian who knows what it’s like to be imprisoned. The academic was spent two years in jail in Iran – which is supporting Hamas – on charges of espionage, which she denies. She was released in exchange for three Iranian prisoners in Thailand.

“I’m utterly shocked and heartbroken and upset,” she says. “It’s unimaginable, what those hostages are and will be going through, especially since they’ve threatened to start executing them, as well as the unimaginable savagery of Hamas’ rampage through the streets.

“I think we need to have a broader discussion about who is responsible, and recognise that as well as Hamas, the responsibility ultimately lies with Iran; they are the backer, the trainer, the financier of this terror organisation, and we need to hold them accountable.”

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