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Israel once exchanged 1000 Palestinian prisoners for a single soldier seized during a cross-border raid. Another time, it swapped almost 5000 prisoners for six of its military personnel. Its commandos have infiltrated a hostile country to rescue hijacked plane passengers. \u201cA premium is put on the value of every Israeli life,\u201d says Ben Saul, a professor of international law.<\/p>\n
But what it faces now is unprecedented. There may be more than 100 Israeli hostages in Gaza. They\u2019re not just soldiers; there are children, grandmothers, young people captured while dancing at a festival. One mother was on the phone to her 12- and 16-year-olds, who she hasn\u2019t heard from since. \u201cI heard terrorists speaking in Arabic,\u201d she says. \u201cThe youngest saying to them \u2018I\u2019m too young to go\u2019. \u201d<\/p>\n
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Partygoers at the Nova rave near the border with Gaza. Some of the festival-goes are believed to have been taken hostage. <\/span><\/p>\n The hostages are likely to be hidden all over the city, some in tunnels and burrows lying up to 30 metres beneath one of the most densely populated areas in the world. As Hamas threatens to broadcast the execution of a hostage for every surprise bombing of a civilian home in Gaza, Israel faces a diabolical choice; to abandon its past policy and sacrifice those people to hit back hard, or preserve lives by tiptoeing around Hamas\u2019 demands.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s uncharted territory,\u201d says Saul. \u201cOn the one hand, there will be enormous pressure to safely return the hostages, if that\u2019s at all possible. On the other hand, will that be overshadowed by the greater public sentiment for vengeance and retaliation and finishing Hamas for good, regardless of the price even to those hostages?\u201d<\/p>\n Rescues, even by the famed special forces, would be impossibly difficult. Firstly, Israel would struggle to find all the hostages, as they\u2019re likely being held in Gaza\u2019s extensive network of tunnels dubbed the Hamas Metro, which run for miles under the city and into Egypt, decked with electric wires and lights. Some are dirt, some are well-constructed. Usually, they are used for covert travel, and to smuggle contraband and weapons.<\/p>\n Moreover, Gaza \u201cis controlled by Hamas\u201d, says Saul. \u201cIt\u2019s heavily militarised, defended, lots of planning has gone into how these captives are held and where they\u2019re held.\u201d A military ground invasion attempting to bring Hamas to its knees could also end badly for the hostages, who would probably be killed or moved.<\/p>\n Israel\u2019s alternative to a ground invasion or rescue would be to \u201cto do what they\u2019re doing already\u201d, says Saul. \u201cWhich is aerial bombardment from afar to degrade Hamas\u2019 offensive capacities, kill its commanders, destroy its mission. It\u2019s not enough to fully defeat Hamas. We will not know [if Hamas is serious about executing hostages] until it starts happening.\u201d<\/p>\n Israel has also ordered a complete siege of Gaza \u2013 which is home to 2.3 million people \u2013 by cutting off water and food.<\/p>\n If Israel allowed Hamas\u2019 execution threat to influence its response, however, it would \u201cshow [Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu] to be weak, ineffective\u201d, says Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern Studies at the Australian National University. \u201cThe other thing Hamas would do, [is say], \u2018we will release hostages, but you have to release prisoners, and also a ceasefire\u2019; if there\u2019s a ceasefire, that would be interpreted as a victory for Hamas.\u201d<\/p>\n Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s brother died during a successful mission to save Israeli passengers on a hijacked plane. <\/span><\/p>\n Nigel Brennan can imagine how the hostages may be feeling as they grapple with their horrifying situation and their fate hangs on the military and strategic calculations of their government. In 2008, the Australian photojournalist was kidnapped at gunpoint in Somalia. \u201cThere\u2019s that shock, you\u2019re going through that first stage of trauma,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n \u201cLots of disbelief \u2013 is this really happening, is this just a bad dream? Your brain jumps to the worst conclusion. I was instantly thinking of situations like Daniel Pearl (a journalist beheaded by Islamic militants). Is my government going to come in? Will we be safe, will we be slaughtered? My thoughts are with all of those people who\u2019ve been taken, and their families.\u201d<\/p>\n Nigel Brennan was held captive in Somalia for 460 days. Inset: Nigel Brennan shortly after his release by Somali rebels in 2009.<\/span>Credit: <\/span>Nigel Wright, Reuters<\/cite><\/p>\n Netanyahu well knows the importance of hostage recovery to his country. His brother, Yonatan, was the only soldier killed during a successful 1976 mission to rescue Israelis who had been aboard a plane hijacked by Palestinians, which involved special forces sneaking into a hostile Uganda.<\/p>\n He was opposition leader the last time an Israeli soldier was taken as a prisoner during an incursion into the country\u2019s territory, in 2006, and was the prime minister when the government agreed \u2013 under public pressure, although not without controversy \u2013 to buy his freedom in exchange for 1000 Palestinian prisoners.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Israeli leadership is in a considerable bind at the moment,\u201d says Saikal. \u201cTo me, it appears that probably they want to go in [and launch a ground invasion of Gaza].\u201d But if they sacrificed the hostages as a result, \u201cwhat would be the reaction of the Israeli public? Why didn\u2019t we have our special forces going in and rescuing these guys?\u201d For many years, the loss of innocent life would be mourned and Israel\u2019s response questioned.<\/p>\n Kylie Moore-Gilbert spent years imprisoned in Iran on trumped-up espionage charges.<\/span>Credit: <\/span>Scott McNaughton<\/cite><\/p>\n Kylie Moore-Gilbert is another Australian who knows what it\u2019s like to be imprisoned. The academic was spent two years in jail in Iran \u2013 which is supporting Hamas \u2013 on charges of espionage, which she denies. She was released in exchange for three Iranian prisoners in Thailand.<\/p>\n \u201cI\u2019m utterly shocked and heartbroken and upset,\u201d she says. \u201cIt\u2019s unimaginable, what those hostages are and will be going through, especially since they\u2019ve threatened to start executing them, as well as the unimaginable savagery of Hamas\u2019 rampage through the streets.<\/p>\n \u201cI think we need to have a broader discussion about who is responsible, and recognise that as well as Hamas, the responsibility ultimately lies with Iran; they are the backer, the trainer, the financier of this terror organisation, and we need to hold them accountable.\u201d<\/p>\n Start the day with a summary of the day\u2019s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up for our Morning Edition newsletter.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<\/p>\n
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